2026 Housing Market Outlook: Where Are Prices Headed?

Zillow's ZIP-level data shows a split market: the boom-era Sun Belt is falling while the Midwest and Northeast keep rising.

The 2026 housing market is defined by divergence, and not in the direction most commentary assumed. Across the roughly 26,000 ZIP codes Zillow tracks, the typical ZIP rose just 1.5% in the year to February 2026, and more than a third (36%) fell.

Where prices are falling:

  • Austin: -4.8%
  • Tampa: -4.7%
  • Miami: -4.2%
  • San Francisco: -2.1%
  • Raleigh: -1.5%

    • Where prices are still rising:

  • New York: +4.1%
  • Detroit: +3.4%
  • Kansas City: +3.3%
  • Salt Lake City: +1.9%
  • Indianapolis: +1.6%

    • The pattern is close to the reverse of 2020 to 2022. The metros that ran hardest during the remote-work boom attracted the most new building and are now giving back gains, while markets that never boomed, and never overbuilt, are still edging higher on affordability.

    What it means for investors: a city's reputation is a lagging indicator. Austin remains a strong long-run economy, but buying there in 2026 means buying into a falling market, while Detroit and Kansas City currently combine lower prices, rising values and higher rental yields. Check the direction of an area's own numbers before its headlines.

    Figures: median year-over-year change across each metro's ZIP codes, Zillow Home Value Index, February 2025 to February 2026.